What's the matter with the world today?

People like me tend to focus on problems, mostly because we are interested in finding ways to address them and thereby improve the human condition. Nonetheless, we should occasionally remind ourselves that all is not doom-and-gloom. In fact, there are plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the state of the world today, and maybe even about the future. The overall level of global violence is at historic lows (despite some tragic conflicts that still defy solution), the world economy has done very well over the past half-century (despite its recent problems) and life expectancy, public health, and education levels have risen dramatically in many parts of the world (though conditions in a few places have deteriorated badly).

So Cassandra-like pessimism may not be appropriate, even for a realist. Nonetheless, I am beginning to wonder if our

ability to deal with various global problems is decreasing, mostly due to the deterioration of political institutions at both the global and domestic level. Here are some tentative thoughts in that direction.

One way to think about the current state of world politics is as a ratio of the number of important problems to be solved and our overall "problem-solving capacity." When the ratio of "emerging problems" to "problem-solving capacity" rises, challenges pile up faster than we can deal with them and we end up neglecting some important issues and mishandling others. Something of this sort happened during the 1930s, for example, when a fatal combination of global economic depression, aggressive dictatorships, inadequate institutions, declining empires, and incomplete knowledge overwhelmed leaders around the world and led to a devastating world war.

Human society is not static, which means that new challenges are an inevitable part of the human condition. New problems arise from the growth of societies, from new ideas, from our interactions with the natural world, and even from the unintended consequences of past successes. As a result, policymakers are always going to face new problems, even when the old ones remain unresolved.

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Ousted Kyrgyz present takes refuge in

INSK, Belarus — Kyrgyzstan's ousted president was in exile in Belarus on Tuesday, as the interim authorities controlling the Kyrgyz capital warned he would be imprisoned if he tried to return to the Central Asian country.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who fled the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek after an April 7 protest rally that exploded into gunfire and left 85 people dead, had taken refuge last week in neighboring Kazakhstan, then left Monday for an unannounced destination.

Belarus' authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday that "Bakiyev and his family are in Minsk under the protection of our state and me personally."

His presence, however, could exacerbate Belarus' tensions with both the West and neighboring Russia, as well as with Kyrgyzstan itself.

"We have a mutual obligation to extradite criminals," said Edil Baisalov, chief of staff for interim Kyrgyz leader Roza Otunbayeva. "We expect Belarus to provide protection and security for Bakiyev until he faces justice in Kyrgyzstan for his bloody crimes."

He accused Bakiyev of being responsible for the Bishkek bloodshed

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Ethiopia accuses Egypt of delaying Nile treaty

ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia said Tuesday that it would go ahead with a new deal with six other countries on sharing the waters of the Nile and accused Egypt of "dragging its feet" on a more equitable treaty.

The new agreement replaces a 1929 colonial-era treaty between Egypt and Britain, which gave Egypt veto power over upstream projects. The country also has access to most of the water from one of the world's longest rivers.

"Ethiopia and six other countries in east and central Africa will sign on May 14 a framework agreement on the equitable utilisation of the Nile river," Ethiopian government spokesman Shimelis Kemal told reporters.

"It's a deal based on international customary law, but Egypt is dragging its feet. All seven countries have rejected the previous agreement between Egypt and colonial Britain," he said.

Egyptian Water Resources Minister Mohammed Allam on Monday warned Nile basin countries against inking the deal which excluded his country.

Burundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda agreed to the new deal on April 13, only to be shunned by both Egypt and Sudan -- the river's two largest consumers.

At the heart of the dispute is the 1929 agreement between Egypt and Britain, acting on behalf of its African colonies along the 5,584-kilometre (3,470-mile) river, which gave Egypt veto power over upstream projects.

An agreement between Egypt and Sudan in 1959 allowed Egypt 55.5 billion cubic metres of water each year -- 87 percent of the Nile's flow -- and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic metres.

Some of the Nile Basin countries say past treaties are unfair and they want an equitable water-sharing agreement that would allow for more irrigation and power projects.

Egypt, a mostly arid country that relies on the Nile for the majority of its water, argues up-stream countries could make better use of rainfall and have other sources of water.

Turkey offers to mediate on Iran's nuclear programme

Turkey has offered to mediate between Iran and the West in the dispute over Iran's nuclear programme.

The Turkish foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, announced the offer after talks with his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki.

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ICG: Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents

This report from the International Crisis Group examines the potential for conflict in Ethiopia ahead of the June 2010 elections as ethnic tensions and dissent rises. The report urges the international community to encourage more meaningful democratic governance in the country.

The Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by its chairman and prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has radically reformed Ethiopia's political system. The regime transformed the hitherto centralised state into the Federal Democratic Republic and also redefined
citizenship, politics and identity on ethnic grounds. The intent was to create a more prosperous, just and representative state for all its people. Yet, despite continued economic growth and promised democratisation, there is growing discontent with the EPRDF's ethnically defined state and rigid grip on power and fears of continued interethnic conflict. The international community should take Ethiopia's governance problems much more seriously and adopt a more principled position towards the government. Without genuine multi-party democracy, the tensions and pressures in Ethiopia's polities will only grow, greatly increasing the possibility of a violent eruption that would destabilise the country and region

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